Due to its inclination of approximately 51.95 degrees, the object could re-enter within a latitude band of ±52 degrees, covering a vast area of the Earth’s surface. Most of this area is ocean or uninhabited land, so the statistical probability of an impact on the ground in populated areas was low. As the re-entry approached, the predictions became more accurate, but uncertainties remained due to the object’s uncontrolled nature.

The EU SST contributing sensors played a crucial role in observing the object and providing data for analysis. The EU SST Operations Centres used this data to produce the best possible estimation for the expected re-entry location and time. A ground track for the re-entry window was continuously updated, and the current window was refined as more data became available.

Map of the whole ground track.
Yellow lines: ground track before the centre of the re-entry window. Green lines: ground track after the centre of the re-entry window. Red: overflights inside European countries and overseas territories.
Note: the possible re-entry locations lied anywhere along the yellow and green lines. The re-entry point was considered to be at an altitude of 80 km.

The Cosmos-482 Descent Craft was a remarkable object deserving careful monitoring, with a titanium shell designed to withstand the extreme accelerations, heat and pressure of a Venus re-entry. Weighing approximately 500 kilograms and measuring 1 metre in diameter, it most likely survived and reached the ground almost intact.

The EU SST Operations Centres will continue to provide the latest information on this event, and this article will be updated accordingly.